We can also ask whether it is true, as is often claimed, that pay rises will stoke inflation. The question of whether a bit over £400 per household is affordable – with the greatest burden falling on the richest – is ultimately a political judgment. But Ben Zaranko, of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, points out in this BBC Reality Check piece that once you factor in the 3% average pay rises for public sector workers already budgeted for 2022-23, the real “extra” cost is about £640 per household, about a third of which would be returned in tax. Rishi Sunak claims that it would cost about £1,000 extra per household to give pay rises offsetting 10% inflation this year. One way to get at the question of affordability is to examine the government’s claims of the cost to taxpayers. For example, an offer to rail workers described as “8%” in a Daily Telegraph headline on 4 December is spread over two years, making it 4% in reality, against the most recent inflation figure of 11.1%. Pay demands should also be set against the impact of inflation, which is quickly eroding the value of even generous-sounding settlements. New analysis published by the TUC today says that 2022 has been the worst year for real pay growth for almost 50 years. Meanwhile, the IFS says, real private sector pay has risen by 4.3% since 2010. But in this analysis from July, Ashley Kirk sets out Office for National Statistics data that shows real public sector pay has fallen by 4.3% since the 2009 financial crisis. “Inflation-matching or inflation-busting pay rises are unaffordable … There simply isn’t the money.” Transport secretary, Mark Harper, Sky News, 27 NovemberĬritics of striking workers often present their pay demands as excessive in a time of economic difficulty. “Where is big effort to mobilise the country against these greedy union extremists?” – Douglas Murray, the Sun, 8 December ‘Striking workers are being greedy and their demands are unaffordable’ The reality of the 1979 comparison is made clear in Richard Partington’s piece from 8 December, which points out that while the number of working days lost this year could reach 1.74m, in September 1979 alone, 12m days were lost. But union representation in the UK since the winter of discontent in 19 has fallen significantly, from about 50% in 1979 to about 23% in 2021, although it is still about 50% in the public sector. It might still be possible for a “de facto general strike” to happen if enough industries succeeded in bringing industrial action at the same time. But now the law bans strikes without a successful ballot in an individual workplace. But claims from both sides that the whole economy will grind to a halt in a “general strike” exaggerate the parallels with the past.Īs this explainer from Philip Inman sets out, it used to be possible for the TUC to coordinate a general strike without ballots in each area.
“It’s almost like a de facto general strike taking place by the amount of disputes” – Dave Ward, CWU general secretary, 3 DecemberĮveryone agrees that industrial action in the weeks running up to Christmas will have a significant impact. “ This is looking increasingly like a general strike” – Stephen Glover, Daily Mail, 7 December Thousands of striking workers and their supporters attend a rally at King’s Cross station called by the UCU on 30 November 2022 in London, England.
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